Job seekers in 2040 will have the most luck getting work in nursing homes, hospitals, banks, and accounting firms. The surge in healthcare doesn’t mean an uptick in M.D.-level salaries; most jobs will be lower-paying gigs as orderlies, technicians, and support staff.
By 2040 metro Atlanta will increase by close to 3 million people—or the equivalent of the entire population of Kansas. That will mean even greater demand for basic infrastructure.
Couples inhabited four-fifths of all households in 1970, and they will still be the most common household type in 2030, accounting for 65 percent. But fewer of those couples will have kids; the “traditional” mom-dad-kids family will drop to less than a quarter of all households. The big increase? Singles. Almost a third of households in 2030 will comprise just one person.
In 2005 there were 1.7 people in Atlanta’s workforce for each “dependent.” By 2040 that ratio will have shifted to almost 1:1. What does the change mean? Fewer people keeping the economy chugging along while they support a growing number of aging parents and a relatively steady number of children. By 2040 metro Atlanta will have almost 500,000 residents over eighty and 1.4 million school kids.
Back in the 1970s, Atlanta’s population followed a neat pyramid structure: lots of kids and young people tapering off to a small cohort in the eighty-five-plus bracket. Right now we’re seeing a bubble, thanks to the influx of Gen X and Y transplants to Atlanta and the resulting Gen Z baby boomlet. By 2040 demographic patterns will reflect the aging of those three generations.
By 2020 metro Atlanta will be “majority minority,” with a white population of 46 percent (down from 71 percent in 1990). Our historical black-white composition will shift, with an increase in Hispanic and Asian residents.
Move over, baby boomers. Change is coming, thanks to a surge in millennials—aka Generations X and Y. “The millennials will have a bigger impact than any other group,” says Mike Alexander, chief of the Atlanta Regional Commission’s research division, who provided us with hundreds of pages of data we distilled into these snapshots. The diverse, nontraditional Gen X and Y cohort doesn’t tolerate long commutes and demands easy access (preferably by foot or bike) to shopping, arts, and restaurants. “What’s important to people living in Atlanta—and coming to Atlanta—is overall quality of life,” Alexander says.
This article and the accompanying graphics originally appeared in the August 2012 issue.