With Herman Cain’s campaign, um, suspended, the race for the GOP nomination increasingly looks like it’s down to three men: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and the old Mitt Romney who is on videotape disagreeing with every major position espoused by the current Mitt Romney.
The political press anointed Romney the clear GOP front-runner early this year. Despite that (or maybe because of that), and despite his superior fundraising and campaign machinery, Romney hasn’t cracked 25% in a while. In fact, polls show Romney getting less popular the more he campaigns. When Mitt Romney talks, people like him less. Since talking is what politicians do, that’s a big problem.
I’m not yet ready to predict Gingrich is going to win the GOP nomination, but barring a shocking new revelation between now and the end of the year, I think he’s going to crush Romney in the Iowa caucus. CRUSH. Have a look-see at the Real Clear Politics line graph of truth:
The green line is Gingrich and it’s pointing way up. The purple line is Romney and he slowly, but it’s dropping.
And notice the red line. That’s Cain’s support. This graph is an average of polls over time, so it still contains polls data from before Cain dropped out. As new polls are added to the average and old polls are dropped, those Cain voters are going to end up in Gingrich’s column. Cain voters love Gingrich and dislike Romney.